Integrated Assessment of the Solar Energy Potential of the Kyrgyz Republic with Account of Radiation, Land and Infrastructure Factors

Abstract

Relevance: The Kyrgyz Republic has a significant solar radiation resource, but its power sector relies mainly on hydropower, and the winter load peak coincides with the seasonal minimum of river flow. A consistent nested assessment of the potential, with all levels calculated on a single grid and period and a robustness-tested comparison of oblasts, is still lacking.

Aim: To obtain nested estimates of the gross radiation and technical potential of grid-connected photovoltaic plants, to screen grid access of suitable sites in the seven oblasts and to determine a robust priority order of the oblasts.

Methods: Open data for 2001–2025 (ERA5-Land, Copernicus DEM GLO-30, ESA WorldCover, WDPA, OpenStreetMap) were processed on a 100 m grid. The gross potential accounts for horizon shading and slope aspect; the technical potential was estimated under three exclusion scenarios with an hourly pvlib-based yield model; grid access was screened by the distance to power lines. The ranking of the oblasts by five indicators was tested in 20 formulations and under random weight sets.

Results: The gross solar radiation potential amounts to 351.8 thousand TWh per year (331.0 thousand TWh with horizon shading and slope aspect). At a placement density of 70 MW/km² (DC), the technical potential ranges from 688 to 10,437 TWh per year depending on the exclusion scenario. Among contiguous sites of at least 1 km², 45.6% of their total area lies within 5 km of a power line. The Issyk-Kul, Osh, Batken and Naryn oblasts form the group of highest priority for preliminary investigation.