Joint use of the indicators for forecasting energy systems development

Abstract

development. The accuracy and balance of forecasts in determining the energy and economic indicators of energy
systems form the basis for the correct formation of the future fuel and energy complex. Currently, the main fore
casting indicators are two: EROEI – energy and LCOE – economic. At present, these indicators are considered
separately, independently of each other. At the same time, it is evident that a systematic approach to forecasting
dictates the simultaneous consideration of both indicators. This will contribute to improving forecast characteris
tics, their objectivity, accuracy, and timeliness. Therefore, analyzing and conducting research on improving fore
casting models with simultaneous consideration of the EROEI/LCOE combination of indicators, as well as their
mutual influence, is relevant. The influence of other variable factors affecting the forecast also needs to be taken
into account. The simultaneous consideration of forecasting indicators will allow for a more accurate and objec
tive determination of the future operational characteristics of energy systems.
Aim: the objective of this work is to analyze the main forecasting indicators for the development of the energy
sector, their mutual influence, and to develop recommendations that increase the efficiency of forecasting when
simultaneously considering the EROEI and LCOE forecasting indicators.
Methods: the work employs the following methods: comprehensive analysis, a systematic approach, multi
criteria optimization, and utilizes international experience in energy forecasting.
Results: this work analyzes the use of key performance indicators for the development of energy systems (energy – EROEI and economic – LCOE). These indicators are used in forecasting and justifying the development of
energy systems. A mathematical relationship between EROEI/LCOE has been confirmed; it has been confirmed
that the indicators influence each other, therefore, a systematic approach with multi-criteria evaluation of the
simultaneous forecast combination of both indicators is necessary. This will ensure the objectivity and accuracy
of energy system development forecasting.